Al-Qaida in America October 6, 2009
Posted by physics309 in Evolution and Creationism, Global Warming, Nostradamus and 2012, Science.add a comment
I recently responded to some individuals that commented on one of my postings concerning a simple experiment to prove the greenhouse effect. These postings culminated in the third response to my global warming skeptic challenge. I was a bit rough on this guy, even to the point of violating the Wiccan Rede (As you harm none, do as ye will). It could be said that it was rather un-Wiccan of me to say some of the things I said.
Yes, and it bothers me some. Not because I feel bad about what I said, but because there is a bigger issue here, the issue that some people are working hard to advance civilization, while others are working hard to drag us down. As a scientist, I find myself tied up with trying to convince these people they are wrong. I will give them the scientific evidence. I will show them how experiments have been done and the results support the scientific theories. I will show them how their theories are flawed and why. I will direct them to references to support everything I say. They, on the other hand, are unable to do any of that (see my $1000 challenge to global warming skeptics as an example). Then, after that, they are unfazed in their beliefs.
The only thing I accomplish is to waste my time on them when I could spend it on more productive issues. The reason I do is to try and keep other people from falling in the same trap.
That is why I am so rough on these guys and why I feel it would actually be un-Wiccan for me to do otherwise. These believers are afflicted with an incurable disease. The only thing I can do is to try and reduce the number of people that get that disease. If being rough on them will help, then that’s what I’m willing to do.
We have very serious problems that must be dealt with. Dealing with these people is hurting that effort. Worse, this small community has the effect of causing the scientific community to spend its time fighting this bunk instead of the real problems. We are fighting a fight to keep us from falling backwards instead of working to move us forwards.
And that is why I call these people Al-Qaida in America (AQA).
AQA is simply, all of those people that subscribe to some impossible belief and insist on dragging the rest of down with them. Its OK if you want to believe in something weird, that’s your business. But, when you start believing in something that cannot be supported by any science or logic and insist that everyone else must conform to you, then there’s a problem. These people all have one thing in common – they are trying to drag us back to the 12th century before there was any modern science. Hence the name.
Example of people that are in AQA are creationists, global warming skeptics, face on Mars advocates, alien abduction advocates, Nostradamus fans and 2012 believers. I came across another one last night that I had almost forgotten about – people that believe ancient astronauts were responsible for basically everything.
I watched part of this show on the History Channel about the claims by some people that we were visited by ancient aliens. This show illustrated perfectly why I call this whole group of people Al-Qaida in America. Several statements just stood out.
For instance, this one guy that publishes a magazine devoted to the idea stated that if you look at all the evidence the only conclusion you can reach is that there were ancient astronauts. The real truth is, if you look at all the evidence you cannot possibly reach that conclusion.
I read Chariots of the Gods in the early 70s when it first came out and several other related books. They were very fascinating and I really enjoyed them. However, the more I learned the more I realized they are complete bunk. They, and other similar books, make these claims that amount to “I don’t know how it was done, therefore it had to have been done by aliens.”
In the show last night they were talking about the carvings on Easter Island. These carvings have been positively proven to have been done by the islanders. There are even unfinished carvings in the quarry and remnants of the tools they used have been identified. The show made a big deal about how similar they are to carvings in Bolivia. Well, duh! It has been shown that the islanders in Easter Island came from South America. Thor Hyerdahl showed without doubt that you could take the kind of boats they used back then and drift westward to the islands. Modern genetics has shown the people there originated in South America. So, the reason they look so similar isn’t because they are modeled after the same aliens, but because the same group of people made both.
The topic of pyramids is another perfect example of this line of reasoning. It has long been claimed that the great pyramids were made by aliens. This is despite the fact that there are copious records concerning the construction of the pyramids, there are hundreds of pyramids (not just three), and we find examples showing how they had to adjust their construction techniques. There is an extensive history of the pyramids and there is no doubt at all that the pyramids were constructed by hired workers (not slaves).
The list just keeps going on and every one of their claims have been conclusively shown to be false. But, they really don’t care about that. They have decided aliens were responsible for just about everything in the ancient world and no amount of evidence will ever alter that opinion.
This illustrates the whole problem. They will look at the evidence and totally disregard anything that does not fit their preconceived notions. No possible amount of scientific evidence can ever convince these people that they are wrong. Worse than that, it is not even possible to convince them that they are not considering all of the evidence. This is the true hallmark of some kind of psychosis. There is certainly something wrong with someone when you can show them, without question, that their conclusion is wrong on a topic, yet they insist on just going their merry way as if nothing ever happened without even addressing what you showed them.
Then, they aren’t happy in their delusions by themselves. It is their mission to convince everyone else. In this way, they drag down the gullible and tie-up the scientific community. Instead of working on advancing science, we are stuck with the task to keeping us from falling back into the pre-Renaissance state of civilization.
The History Channel really has become the Crackpot Channel.
Besides, it is both arrogant and demeaning to suggest all of these things were done by aliens.
First, they suggest we are never clever enough to figure out anything for ourselves. This is kind of like the parent that always does everything for their kids because they don’t think the kids are smart enough.
At the same time, its rather arrogant to think the aliens are traveling vast distances to come and do things for a bunch of dumb cavemen. What’s their motive for that? (Hey, Galactic Congress! I would like you to give me a cazillion quonots so that I can fly across the cosmos and carve stone figures on the shore of a little island!)
So, I enjoyed the book and still enjoy the discussion. But, now I enjoy it because it causes me to think objectively. Its a good mental exercise to hear this arguments and to find the flaw (or usually, flaws) in their logic.
So, if you believe in one of the beliefs I cited above and are feeling offended that I classify you as an enemy of modern society, too bad. And, if you are offended that I have bunched your belief in with other beliefs that you find offensive, then I suggest you take a critical look at your beliefs. Maybe the reason you are being bunched with the others is because you have so much in common with them.
As both a Wiccan and a scientist, I cannot, in good conscience, sit by while this group of people work to undermine modern society and not do something about it.
More On The 2012 Frenzy March 10, 2009
Posted by physics309 in Nostradamus and 2012, Science.add a comment
I haven’t written about the 2012 frenzy for a while and felt like stirring things up. Click on the ‘Science’ link to see my previous postings on this fraud.
Go to Amazon.com and do a book search on ‘2012′ to see what you get. When I did, I got 102,980 hits. Certainly, there are not almost 103,000 books on the year 2012 so some of these have some other 2012 in them. But, when I scroll through the titles, it takes until the 32nd listing before I find a book that isn’t about the so-called prophesy. But, even then, its a fiction-thriller centered on the 2012 non-event. The 35th book is about racing rules for the 2009-2012 season, so that is the first listing that has nothing to do with this nonsense.
The titles of these books tells you everything you need to know about them: ‘Apocalypse 2012′, ‘An Investigation Into Civilization’s End’, ‘Planning for Extraordinary Change’. My favorite is ‘The Complete Idiot’s Guide to 2012.’ I figure its because the only people that buy into this stuff are complete idiots.
Then, when I did a search on ‘2012 prophecy’ I got about 580,000 hits. That’s a lot of websites devoted to 2012. No wonder all those people are writing those books. If just the people with the websites bought a couple books, it would be very profitable. Too bad they aren’t the only ones crazy enough to spend money on this thing.
If it was just books and websites, that would be bad enough. But, you know there will be lots of scams. Like this one where this guy wants you to donate money to help build bunkers to survive 2012. One person emailed me that he wanted $10,000 from her. That would have been only the beginning. There would have been cost overruns and extra costs that would always require more contributions if she really wants to survive.
That’s how these people operate. Personally, I would report the guy to the police and let them check him out to see if he really is spending the money on bunkers at all. I would not be surprised to find out his idea of surviving 2012 includes a BMW and a luxury house somewhere.
The number of scams will grow as we get closer to 2012. Now is the time to educate yourself and the people around you about this monstrous fraud. Lots of these scammers are going to make money off the gullible. Hopefully, we can all do something to minimize the damage.
2012 Fraud – More Comments January 27, 2009
Posted by physics309 in Musings, Nostradamus and 2012, Science.4 comments
I know that the year 2012 is going to be insane about this ‘end of the world’ topic, and I also know there really isn’t anyway to prevent it, but I have to try. Maybe I’ll get through to a few people that see how silly it is. The biggest problem I have is with people writing sensationalist books, trying to con people out of their hard-earned dollars.
Having said that, I would like to point out an news article I read about this topic. In particular, some very telling comments were made.
For instance, Lawrence Joseph wrote a book called “Apocalypse 2012″ and outlines “terrible possibilities.” The article says,
“But Joseph admits he doesn’t think the world is going to end. “I do, however, believe that 2012 will prove to be… a very dramatic and probably transformative year,” Joseph said. The author acknowledged he’s worried his book’s title might scare people, but said he wanted to alert the public about possible dangers ahead.”
This is all great. There are “possibilities.” Of course there are. There are terrible possibilities every day of every year. We don’t have to wait until 2012 for that to come true. Also, every year is transformative. Would anyone want to deny that 2008 was a significantly transformative year? Funny, no ancient cultures or psychics predicted that one.
Another of these people is half truthful:
Another author said the doom and gloom approach is a great misunderstanding of 2012.
“The trendy doomsday people… should be treated for what they are: under-informed opportunists and alarmists who will move onto other things in 2013,” said John Major Jenkins, whose books include “Galactic Alignment” and who describes himself as a self-taught independent Maya scholar.
Yes, the trendy doomsday people will move on to something, but so will the other trendy opportunists, such as John Major Jenkins.
Here is the basic facts. The Mayans had no idea there was any such thing as a center of the galaxy. The Mayan calendar doesn’t end in 2012, it is merely the end of a cycle. The Sun is eclipsing the center of the Milky Way every year and has been for decades.
Here are some other facts. There is a great possibility that something will happen in 2012. There is also a great possibility that something will happen in 2009, 2010, and 2011, as well as 2013, 2014 and every other year after that. Face it, something happens just about every year that we wish didn’t happen. This doesn’t have anything to do with Mayan, the center of the galaxy, or 2012. Its just life.
So, if you want to study the Mayans, learn about their rich and wonderful culture. Maybe make a trip to Belize or Guatemala and see their culture first-hand. But, for goodness sake, don’t waste your money by giving any of it to these charlatans.
Nostradamus 2012 – Just the Facts January 6, 2009
Posted by physics309 in Nostradamus and 2012, Science.18 comments
I could go on about how the show Nostradamus 2012 on the History Channel should have been called “The Three Stooges 2012″, but I won’t. I figure most people are smart enough to realize that for themselves and if you believe in this nonsense, there is positively no possible way that you can be convinced otherwise. Instead, I want to go through and address a few of the factual issues of the show. This is only a sampling. Without editorializing, there are literally so many factual errors in this show that I could not list them all here. I have to limit myself to the highlights.
Let’s begin with the conjunction of the Sun and the galactic center. The premise of the show is that the Sun’s path through the sky will pass through the galactic center in 2012 with the Sun being in conjunction (a visual lining up) with the galactic center on the winter solstice (about December 21). Somehow, they say, this will set in motion cataclysmic events.
The fact is, the Sun lies in conjunction with the galactic center every year and nothing has ever happened the other times it has occurred. No explanation is ever given of why this should happen in 2012, but not any of the other times it happens.
Another key claim is that the Mayan calendar ends in 2012. Can it possibly be coincidence that the Mayan calendar ends the same time the Sun is in conjunction with the galactic center?
Actually, yes it can be a coincidence, and not even a very big one. First, the Mayan calendar doesn’t ‘end’ in 2012 any more than the western calendar ends on December 31. That is merely when one cycle ends and another begins. The Mayan calendar is based on the cycles of Venus, which was very holy to them. The Mayans called Venus Kukulcan and made human sacrifices to it. Venus goes through five full cycles every eight Earth years, where a cycle consists of going from being the evening star, to the morning star, and back to the evening star again. The time Venus spends in the sky as either the evening star or morning star is 260 days. This is the basis of not only the Mayan calendar, but some calendars still in use in Central America even today. If you watch the 260-day cycle, it comes into phase with the 365-day calendar every 52 years. This 52-year cycle is known as the Calendar Round and is the period of the Mayan calendar. It is the end of a Calendar Round that occurs in 2012 (with the start of a new Calendar Round right after that). So, it is merely a 1 in 52 chance that the Calendar Round would end in 2012. Given all of the hundreds of different calendars in the world, it is not surprising at all to find one that correlates with 2012. The cycles of Venus are available to anyone with the simplest of observational tools and patience, both of which the Mayans, and other cultures, had in abundance.
The show was very dependent on the possible interpretations of Nostradamus quatrains. As I have said before, this is more than questionable. Individual quatrains have been claimed to have predicted several different events. At one point in the show, they are speaking of one particular quatrain, saying it ‘exactly’ predicted the Katrina disaster in New Orleans and then go on to say that it even predicted other storms. How can they claim it predicted Katrina while at the same time claiming it predicted other storms? The fact is, if you take a detailed historical timeline and sit down with the quatrains, you can make them match up with as many historical events as you want. Each quatrain is so vague and meaningless that it has whatever meaning you wish to assign to it. They cannot be considered to be predictions by any meaningful definition of the word.
They also spent a great deal of time on the so-called ‘Lost Book of Nostradamus.’ This is a series of painted pages that were painted hundreds of years after Nostradamus died. Through a terribly convoluted argument, some people are claiming they were actually predictions by Nostradamus, even though its well known he couldn’t draw. But, using these drawings, they read what they want to see and use it as ‘evidence.’ All of which is very questionable.
One picture had a drawing of the Sun and a Lion, which they claimed was predicting the conjunction of the Sun with the galactic center in the constellation Leo. Unfortunately, the conjunction will occur in Sagittarius.
Another had a swirl next to a scorpion. Somehow, this was supposed to show that Nostradamus had knowledge that the Milky Way galaxy is a spiral galaxy. I really couldn’t see how this interpretation could be justified. Again, the center of the Milky Way is in Sagittarius, not Scorpio.
Another one had a banner swirling around a sword. They claimed the S-shape of the sword showed the S-shape of the center of the Milky Way galaxy. The problem is that I cannot see any S-shape. Take a look for yourself here.
This was a continuing problem throughout the show. Basically, they wanted to find some supporting evidence and they went out and interpreted even the most obscure things as such. The ball game played by Mayans was supposed to be a representation of the Sun’s conjunction with the galaxy center. One of the Lost Book cards had three eclipses on it and they stated 2012 is a very rare year with three eclipses. Not so. Three eclipses is very common, especially since they were not limiting themselves to eclipses of the Sun or Moon.
The three pyramids of Giza were supposed to represent the belt of Orion and they claimed the ancient Egyptians were warning us of the 2012 event with these. The argument was that the pyramids represented Orion and the Sun was in Orion six months out from Sagittarius. The problem with this claim is that the Sun never passes through Orion.
They found four animal carvings and interpreted these as being the four constellations the Sun passes through in the zodiac. But, the Sun passes through all 12 constellations in the zodiac, which is why those constellations draw attention. [The Sun actually passes through part of a 13th one, but that isn't an issue here.]
They talk about the 2004 earthquake that caused the disastrous tsunami, saying that there was a 9.0 earthquake in a region that was not even previously known to have a fault. The fault was actually well know, well mapped, and well studied. There is a mountain of data on this fault.
They say that if America stopped shipping food there would be a massive famine. They even claimed that 500 million people would die of famine in Africa within a year. In 1980 Jimmy Carter ordered a grain embargo because of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the world markets didn’t even hiccup. The loss of the American food crops would be bad, but wouldn’t cause hundreds of millions of deaths in just a year.
They talked about a ‘cosmic super wave’ that will irradiate the Earth with a beam of gamma rays on December 21 from the center of the Milky Way. There is simply no such thing as a death ray like cosmic super wave. The black hole in the center of the Milky Way will, aperiodically, suck in a star and emit large amounts of gamma rays. These gamma rays go in all directions and the center of the galaxy is so far away that they are harmless to us.
They say this alignment could trigger a massive volcanic eruption. This is completely non-physical. As I said before, the Sun actually aligns with the galactic center every year and nothing happens. But, there can’t be an eruption without an influx of lava. These kinds of influxes take tens of thousands of years to occur. No alignment can suddenly cause such a influx.
These are just a few factual errors they make in this show. There are many more. In fact, almost everything said in this show is a falsehood. But, that’s the problem with all of these kinds of claims. And, yet, people believe in them anyway. Come December 21, 2012, there will be all sorts of news stories of the people getting ready for the end of times.
The problem is that if any kind of tumultuous event should happen, such as what we see on a regular basis, they can say, ‘See? We told you so!’
Nostradamus: 2012 – First Comments January 5, 2009
Posted by physics309 in Nostradamus and 2012, Science.1 comment so far
[Note: See also my post: Nostradamus 2012 Just The Facts]
I started watching the show Nostradamus:2012 on the History Channel and I just wanted to make my first comments. It’ll take me a little while to get my full comments down because there is so much nonsense in this show that I couldn’t write fast enough. It will take me some time and I really don’t want to write some book-long posting detailing every silly mistake they make. But, I’ll start out with a few notable ones.
First, the so-called Lost Book of Nostradamus wasn’t even written by Nostradamus. It was written hundreds of years after he died. I wrote a posting on this topic before.
They freely through out qualifiers like ‘might’, ’seems’, ‘possibly’, and ‘could be’ as if this somehow makes the statement more credible. The statement ‘The Sun might rise tomorrow’ is less credible than the statement ‘The Sun will rise tomorrow’. The question is, why don’t these people realize that? Saying ‘2012 could be an important year’ is not made more credible with the ‘could be’ thrown in. Saying, ‘The Mayans seems to have realized this’ is not more convincing with the words ’seems to’ included. What these kinds of words do is to make the statements nothing more than conjecture and hyperbole. There is no substance, but at the same time, there is nothing that is being said that they can be held to task for. If things don’t work out, then they merely say, ‘Well I only said that it ‘might’ happen.’ In the meantime, they make a bunch of money by sucking in a bunch of gullible people.
Another point, contrary to what is being said, Nostradamus never predicted anything. ANYTHING! What he did was to write a bunch of vague quattrains that are basically meaningless. Most experts generally agree that he was writing in code about the political activities and the national figures of his day. Many people look at these meaningless statements of his and say, ‘Hey! You could interpret this to mean what is going on today!’ The problem is that you could make this statement at just about any point since Nostradamus died. In fact, his quattrains appear to predict hundreds, if not thousands, of events. How can it be a prediction when it happens over and over? When do you say, ‘Well, we can’t say this quattrain is predicting today’s events because it has already been established he was predicting events that happened 100 years ago, and 50 years before that, and another 75 years before that one, and…’
The fact that this show is such garbage is evident by the fact that they have no contrary individuals in it. They didn’t include anyone that would say, ‘No, what these people are saying is false because ….’ You really have to wonder about any show that only includes people that are selling a single bill of goods. This becomes more and more of an issue the more radical the bill of goods becomes. Claiming the world is going to end in 2012 is a big one, too.
So, I’ll be back with more detailed comments about this rubbish. I will leave you with one question to ponder. When the world doesn’t end on December 21, 2012, will any of these people wise up?
More Nostradamus Bunk January 3, 2009
Posted by physics309 in Nostradamus and 2012, Science.1 comment so far
We were walking along in NYC last week when I looked over and saw this billboard advertising a show on the History Channel: Nostradamus 2012. I thought, ‘Great! Here’s another piece of crap I have to watch so I can debunk my students questions!’
I’ll watch the show so that I know what these people are saying and make a posting here next week. But, briefly, these kinds of things are the equivalent of Nigerian email scams. They are preying on the gullible and trying to take their money. Don’t buy into it! Watch the show, but do so with a mind open to the idea that there are alternatives to what they are trying to feed you. The show is first airing on Sunday, January 4th at 9 PM Eastern time.
Why Bother? December 18, 2008
Posted by physics309 in Evolution and Creationism, Global Warming, Nostradamus and 2012, Science.add a comment
I have, over the years, made it a point to stand up to the various kinds of non-reasoning people that claim to have some enormous insight beyond what science tells us. Among these claims that I’ve stood up to are: cigarette smoking isn’t hazardous to your health; astrology; a face on Mars; psychic powers; global warming skeptics; anti-nuclear activists; 9/11 conspiracy nuts; Holocaust deniers; endless government conspiracies (there are so many you would need a Department of Government Conspiracies to manage them all); and my two favorites, creationism and the moon landings hoax theory.
If you find your particular belief in this list and are offended because I’ve lumped you in with these others – Good! You should be offended because you are yourself offensive. The fact is, all of these are different manifestations of the same malady. What the cause of this illness is, I’m not sure. But I sure do recognize it when I see it. And, the important thing is to make sure these people understand they can’t spew their nonsense unopposed.
What happens is they come out and make unfounded and unsupported claims, but these claims then become accepted as fact and people base their beliefs on them. Let me give you an example.
I saw a news article quoting a number of scientist as being critical of a prior news report on global warming, even calling it ‘hysteria.’ The critical article quoted David Deming, a geology professor at the University of Oklahoma. Among the things Demming said was:
“The mean global temperature, at least as measured by satellite, is now the same as it was in the year 1980. In the last couple of years sea level has stopped rising. Hurricane and cyclone activity in the northern hemisphere is at a 24-year low and sea ice globally is also the same as it was in 1980.”
This is a pretty definite statement and sounds very convincing. But, let’s look at the facts for ourselves.
He says that the ‘mean global temperature, at least as measured by satellite, is now the same as it was in the year 1980.” Well, we can check this here and here. Even the most casual inspection of the data shows Demmings statement is false.
He also said, ‘In the last couple of years sea level has stopped rising.’ The data shows this is simply not true.
Then, he said, ’sea ice globally is also the same as it was in 1980.’ Again, there is no basis in truth for his statement.
What about, ‘Hurricane and cyclone activity in the northern hemisphere is at a 24-year low’? Check out the data or read this article for yourself and you decide.
So, when we make the effort to actually verify statements like this, we see they are completely false.
As for the creationists, well they sure do have all sorts of problems. Of course, if you’re going to believe in creationism and reject evolution, then you can’t believe in DNA evidence because without evolution, we would all have the same DNA. Why bother getting a flu shot? Without evolution there is only one strain of flu. Nothing to worry about. You must believe the Sun is the center of the solar system and the Earth revolves around it. The Bible says so!
Talking to a creationist runs something like this:
Creationist: “Well 2 plus 2 is five and that proves creationism.”
Evolutionist: “But, 2 plus 2 doesn’t add up to five. It adds up to four.”
Creationist: “Exactly! And, since we know that two plus two is five, we now know that evolution is false!”
Evolutionist: “But, wait a minute! Two plus two doesn’t add up to five. Your argument is false!”
Creationist: “See? Its so simple. Two plus two adding up to five proves it!”
Now, you may think I’m making fun of creationists. I’ve been known to do that and its certainly fun and worthwhile, but I’m not doing that here. I have had conversations with creationists that have gone almost exactly like this. They will pull out some false argument and cite it as proof. Then, no amount of evidence or logic will ever persuade them that there is no substance to that argument.
Things just keep getting worse for creationists. Like this news story about a find of 9000-year old human bones with tuberculosis. Unfortunately, creationists believe the universe (and man) was created about 6000 years ago. But, this really isn’t a problem for creationists. They simply ignore evidence like this.
And, that is why I feel the need to stand up to them and speak up. As an educator, I am constantly confronted with students that are sucked in by statements like this and then its my job to convince them that there is no truth to them. Unfortunately, all too many people buy into this. For instance, I saw a survey recently that said 40% of Americans believe in creationism. What a national shame that is.
But why do people buy into things that are so clearly wrong? Why would someone believe in something that is proven to be false by mountains of evidence and not supported by any logic or documented evidence? I really don’t know. The only thing I can think of is that it is some deep-seated psychological flaw in our personalities that demands we reject reality and find refuge in a fantasy world that provides us comfort. I can imagine it is something like retreating to the womb. A place where you can feel warm and secure, a way to not have to deal with the real world.
Personally, I revel in dealing with the real world, but I’ve known lots of people that are just overwhelmed by it. I enjoy the obstacles, the challenges, the opportunities, the uncertainties, the twists. I love to wonder about what’s around the next bend in the road. I love even more going around the bend and finding out. I can’t look at a hill without wanting to go over it and see what’s on the other side. Sit me down in a field and I’ll be turning stones over to see what’s underneath. Isn’t life grand?
But, not everyone sees it that way. So, they deny the Nazis liquidated millions because it is too horrible to contemplate. They believe there is a face on Mars because that would mean there is a great civilization out there that put it there and they may provide us with answers. They deny we landed on the Moon because the concept is just so big to them they can’t deal with it, so they simply deny it ever happened. These are people that look at the bend in the road as a threat, something to worry about. Hills not only hide what’s on the other side from them, but hides them from what ever may lie on the other side. And, these people will never, ever, turn a rock over just for the fun of it. The world is a threat and they are looking for a safe haven.
Maybe I’m wrong, but that’s the way I see it. There’s not much you can do for these people, they have rejected all logic and all science and nothing you can do or say will ever change their minds. So, why do I bother? Because, maybe I can prevent someone else from sinking into this disease. Maybe, I can get through to someone that has yet to become infected and convince them to check the facts and to think for themselves.
Some people say I’m wasting my time. To quote Thomas Paine “To argue with those who have renounced the use and authority of reason is as futile as to administer medicine to the dead.”
As usual, Thomas Paine was correct. But, it misses the point of how much fun it is.
So, keep your facts straight, check the story for yourself, and don’t buy into the nutcake arguments.
Pass it on.
The Lost Book of Nostradamus November 6, 2007
Posted by physics309 in Nostradamus and 2012, Op-Ed, Science.2 comments
I got my flu vaccination on Sunday and wasn’t feeling well last night as a result of a reaction to it (normal for me). So, I did a little homework for my pseudoscience lectures and watched ‘The Lost Book of Nostradamus’ which I had previously Tivo’ed when it ran on the History Channel. I have to tell you that I was laughing out loud during this show. It was that ridiculous. They would actually use statements like “could be,” “possible,” and “maybe” all in the same sentence. When you multiply 10% times 10% you don’t get 100%, you get 1% (.10 x .10 = .01). Using ‘possible’ and ‘maybe’ at the same time is going for the 1% (or less). There is no credibility to statements like that.
The show revolves around a book that was reportedly discovered in the Italian National Library and is supposed to be lost predictions by Nostradamus in the form of 80 watercolor drawings. The show takes this position and then runs with it for the first 1 hour and 45 minutes of the show before finally revealing it wasn’t done by Nostradamus at all. But, I’m getting ahead of myself.
This show is a perfect example of how pseudoscience works and how gullible people are suckered by it. The show claims, from beginning to end, that Nostradamus was a great prophet that accurately made numerous predictions of future events. There is never any proof of this, nor is there ever any dissenting opinion of this. It is stated as if it is as much a fact as stating the Earth is round. In fact, if you go and look for yourself, you will see that the quattrains of Nostradamus predict nothing at all. He has never predicted anything. The quattrains are so vague and convoluted that you can make them fit just about anything you want. Some people point at a particular quattrain and an event in history and make the argument that its an accurate prediction. The problem with this is that you can take that same quattrain and show that it is at least as equally valid about several other events in history. If it was a prediction of future events it would be about one event, not numerous ones. Most unbiased analysis of the quattrains shows that he was speaking vaguely of events in his own time, not the distant future.
As they described these predictions, the best they could do was ‘In my opinion….,’ or ‘This could be…..,’ or ‘It is possible this is…..’ These aren’t predictions. All they were doing is grasping at straws with nothing to support their claims. They came to a conclusion, then went looking for something to support it. Nothing presented in the entire show supported the claim that these drawings were predictions of current world events.
The people in this show claim these drawings are predictions all the while missing the most obvious explanations. For instance, one of the drawings has a drawing of a pope with several people turning their backs on him. They claim Nostradamus accurately predicted current events concerning the Catholic church and it’s problems in this drawing. But, they ignore the most obvious explanation that the Reformation began in 1517 when Nostradamus was a young boy and the world he lived in was full of people turning their backs on the Church.
A great one was a picture of a castle tower in flames. Everyone in the show claimed this was an accurate prediction of 9/11 and the Twin Towers. They even pulled out Tarot cards showing very similar burning towers and cited this as evidence that Nostradamus was predicting the end of the world. The Tarot card, they argued, was the worst card in the Tarot deck and meant imminent disaster. By predicting the Twin Towers in this manner, Nostradamus was predicting the worst of fates for the world. What is amazing is that not a single person ever suggested that it was just a drawing of a Tarot card.
In fact, the book consisted of 80 drawings. A standard modern Tarot deck has 78 cards, although this number changes from deck to deck and has varied over history. I’m no expert on Tarot, but I know enough to recognize several cards in the drawings they were showing. It seems to me the most obvious explanation for these drawings is that they were nothing more than drawings of a Tarot deck. Tarot cards were in wide circulation in those days and were routinely used to predict horoscopes. Nostradamus himself made his living this way.
But, it got even better.
They claimed the reason Nostradamus made these predictions as drawings instead of in quattrains is that he knew the world of today was visually oriented. Accordingly, he adjusted his communications method to have the most appeal to the people of the 21st century. But, even the Nostradamus experts agreed that Nostradamus couldn’t draw. Hey! No problem! His son could draw, we’ll just say his son did these. They then went through this convoluted argument about how his son made these drawings and entrusted them to the Catholic church for safe keeping, at his father’s bequest. There is a real problem with this scenario. Earlier in the show they went to great lengths to show that Nostradamus was in fear of execution by the Church for his predictions. If he was convinced that the Church wanted to kill him in order to silence his predictions, why would he want to entrust his predictions to them?
Another point they made concerned a drawing of a wheel with eight spokes. This, they argued, was a prediction of the end of the world. How did they rationalize this? The idea is that the horizontal and vertical spokes represent the celestial coordinate system and the cross spokes represent the Milky Way galaxy. When the center of the Milky Way crosses the vernal equinox you will have the eight spoked wheel. This, they say, will occur in 2012. But, anyone who has ever read anything about pagan religions should immediately recognize the wheel of the year. In this wheel, the horizontal and vertical spokes represent the equinoxes and solstices, while the cross spokes represent what are known as cross-quarter days, the days mid-way between the solstices and equinoxes ( now known as Ground Hog’s day, May Day, Lammas Day, and Halloween). This wheel was very commonly used in those days and is still used even today, although many people have lost the knowledge of its origin.
But, nearly at the end of the show, they finally discussed scientific analysis of the book to determine if it could have been written by Nostradamus. The first thing was that the handwriting was not his. No problem, they just claimed it was his son’s. The paper, with a special watermark, was made during a period of a couple of centuries that included the period when Nostradamus lived. They then cited this as evidence that he drew them. But, that isn’t what the evidence showed. It only showed that paper like that was made during Nostradamus’ lifetime.
But, this is when it got really good. It was found that the ink was not available during Nostradamus’ lifetime. You would think this would put the breaks on these guys, but this wasn’t a problem. They simply came to the conclusion this book was so valuable that it had been copied by hand over the centuries and what they were examining was the latest version of this effort.
So, there you have it, the classic example of a pseudoscience. No amount of evidence to the contrary can disprove the claims. It is not possible to put their claims about Nostradamus to a scientific test under the scientific method because they will always wave off the facts so that they can always come to the same conclusion. Fortunately, while we can’t test the people making these claims, we can test Nostradamus’ quattrains and every scientific test has shown there is no validity to the claim that he predicted the future.
But, in case you are still a believer, they are claiming he predicted the world will end in 2012. Only five years to go.
I encourage you to check the schedule and watch this show to make your own decision about what they are saying. If nothing else, it is entertaining.
Mega-stupid April 26, 2007
Posted by physics309 in Evolution and Creationism, Global Warming, Nostradamus and 2012, Op-Ed, Science.add a comment
I hear all sorts of questions about conspiracy theories in my physics and astronomy classes. I have come to the conclusion that people who believe these kinds of things are the same people that fall for Nigerian scams. I wonder what part of the brain is so damaged that it would be possible to so completely take leave of your senses.
This goes beyond stupid, we’re talking about mega-stupid.
I have reviewed several of these ridiculous claims and have come to the firm conclusion that the people advocating them are complete idiots. We’re talking about brain-dead bovines, here. The theory that the 9/11 attack was staged is so preposterous that I would think it was a script for a spoof movie if I didn’t know these people really believe it. The evidence is non-existent, anyone that has taken a middle-school science class can see right through the ‘science’, and the logic is so obtuse that it is impossible to follow. The people believing in this theory are the equivalent of the people that claim the holocaust didn’t happen – brain-dead twits.
And, I can’t even describe how truly mega-stupid you have to be to believe that the Moon landings were faked.
I had a student in my astronomy class one semester that came in with a conspiracy theory almost every period. I patiently addressed each of these with him and even worked with him out of class, doing research with him to show that these theories were invalid. I hoped that if I continued to show that these claims were so much junk, he would eventually realize that they all were. One day, we were researching this claim he brought in about how the government was adding a secret ingredient to jet fuel in order to purposefully change the environment. One of the key pieces of ‘evidence’ was a story concerning an incident at a Canadian town. When we researched it, I found there was no such town, it simply didn’t exist. He looked at me and proudly said, ‘See, there’s the proof! If it didn’t happen, why did they cover it up?’ In his mind, the thing that proved it was the fact that there was no proof. I realized then that it was impossible to ever change his mind about these matters and stopped spending my time on it. I recall how he asked me one day, ‘Why don’t you believe any of these theories?’ I responded, ‘Why do you believe in all of them?’ In the end, I simply wrote him off to the junk pile of human refuse.
Another time I was selecting a chat room from a list and slipped on the link, hitting the next one in the list by accident. It took me a few seconds of reading to realize I wasn’t where I had planned to be and by that time I gotten interested in what I was reading. This was a chat room of people claiming the post office was planning on taking over the country! Zip+4 was their way of classifying everyone and making a master database of people so they could take out any one that stood in their way. I thought it was a joke at first, but then it dawned on me that they were serious. I guess it was an even bigger joke than I had first thought.
A good one was the time I was having lunch with some students and it came up that I work in naval intelligence. One of them said, ‘Oh, so you know who killed John Kennedy.’ I said, ‘Of course I know who killed Kennedy.’ I’m not exaggerating when I say their eyes got big and they all leaned forward to hear the great secret I was keeping. ‘Lee Harvey Oswald killed Kennedy.’
They weren’t impressed.